Further evidence pointing to the positive impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland has been released via latest figures for alcohol-related deaths.
The figures show there were 1,020 alcohol-specific deaths in Scotland in 2019, 10% fewer than in 2018 and the lowest annual total since 2013. The release reports 2019 is the first substantial decrease in recent years, after a period of general increase since 2012.
'Cautious optimism'
In a blog for Alcohol Focus Scotland, Colin Angus from the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group explores the data urging cautious optimism given what is still relatively early days. Notably, alcohol-specific deaths mainly account for deaths as a direct cause of drinking, with around two thirds being due to alcohol-related liver disease. However, alcohol is implicated in many other deaths - estimated at 3,177 in Scotland in 2019 - which are harder to measure precisely and tend to manifest over longer periods of time. The blog cites, for example, that "in the most extreme case, a heavy drinker who cuts down their alcohol intake in 2019 won’t expect to see a reduction in their cancer risk for a decade, and the full benefit won’t be felt until 2039".
Nonetheless, previous data has shown reductions in consumption following MUP's introduction, with both these and the latest death figures largely consistent with the modelled impacts. Of course many questions remain about the complexity of the policy and variations across groups, and of course what effect the COVID-19 pandemic will be. Notably, MUP targets heavier drinkers, but surveys point to increases in consumption amongst some heavier drinkers, whilst many lower risk drinker's consumption has remained stable or decreased. As such, comparisons in changes between Scotland and England, where MUP is yet to be introduced, are likely to remain crucial in the evaluation.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have released a new briefing on MUP which is broadly supportive, but argues that reforms to the tax system are crucial. Indeed many MUP advocates have long argued that the much criticised alcohol duty system needs changes, whilst in recent years duty changes in the budget have gone against the wishes of public health groups. Indeed, key alcohol groups have been consistently calling for duty reforms that account for public health impacts. The government is currently reviewing the system following the Conservative's 2019 manifesto pledge.
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