The first analysis of off-trade alcohol sales over the full year following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) has been released by NHS Health Scotland, confirming a fall in sales in Scotland and a rise in England where MUP is not in place.
After MUP was introduced on 1st May 2018, the volume of pure alcohol sold per adult in Scotland fell by 3.6% compared to the previous year, whilst in England & Wales the volume of pure alcohol sold in the off-trade during the same year increased by 3.2% from 6.3 to 6.5 litres. BBC report here.
As highlighted in a Colin Angus Twitter thread, sales data indicated a relatively stable trend over the past six years. The 2018 summer saw the world cup and hot weather, likely behind the rise in consumption in England & Wales, but seemingly blunted by MUP in Scotland. MUP specific effects have also been seen as expected, hitting cheap cider sales hardest. However, fortified wine sales saw an increase, prompting questions about switching to Buckfast, the infamous 'tonic wine'. However, fortified wines still accounted for only 3.5% of post-MUP alcohol sales, thus less significant in the broader context. No clear evidence of significant cross-border sales has been apparent.
The findings are largely consistent with previously released data having already indicated the decline in consumption in Scotland versus a fall in England and Wales. However many have continued to insisted the findings are still early days in the context of the five year evaluation plan. The Scottish government has said it will review the level of minimum pricing after May, the second anniversary of the law coming into force. Chief executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland, Alison Douglas, said:
"Even a small reduction in the amount of alcohol consumed in Scotland will mean fewer lives damaged by or lost to drink. Increasing the price of alcohol is one of the most effective and cost-effective policy measures to reduce alcohol consumption and harm."
A range of other evaluation components are also underway, including new findings from interviews on the impact of MUP on fifty 13-17 year olds who reported drinking before and after MUP. The young people interviewed reported that money and price changes were not perceived to be barriers to their drinking. This was despite being largely price aware, and had observed changes in product price, and to a lesser extent changes in product availability. The evaluation acknowledges the limited evidence around the impact of MUP on under-18s and the complex range of factors other than price in drinking behaviours.
A boost for MUP advocates in England?
Whilst Wales and Ireland have already committed to MUP, public health groups have been consistently calling for a firm Government commitment having seen the infamous 2013 u-turn and positive indications in 2019 appear to fade. However a BBC interview with Conservative MP Tobis Ellwood in which he backs MUP following the latest release may be a welcome boost. Ellwood said he had looked at MUP back in 2006 but said "the push back from industry was huge". Evidence published in a 2014 BMJ article suggested the 2013 u-turn was influenced by sections of the alcohol industry, and the consultation had been a 'sham'. In 2018 a surprise announcement that the Government were developing a new alcohol strategy, including a further review of MUP, appeared to come out of the blue, but as time passed it became apparent that any such plans had been shelved.
The Alcohol Health Alliance UK (AHA) is currently supporting a Commission on Alcohol Harm, established to examine the current evidence on alcohol harm, recent trends in alcohol harm and the changes needed to reduce the harm caused by alcohol.
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