Recent ONS figures show the number of pubs and bars increased in 2019 for the first time in a decade, raising questions over whether a long term downward trend since the 1980s could be coming to an end.
The rise of 315 (0.8%) pubs and bars last year to a total of 39,130 is attributed mainly to the growth in food sales. The figures show more people are now employed in food roles than those working behind the bar and changes in people spending more on eating out and less on drinking out, though multiple factors are linked to changes in pub numbers.
Pubs have been diversifying or arguably facing demise for a number of years, particularly in the context of declines in youth drinking and financial pressures on both consumers and operators. As such, providing food, hot drinks and alcohol-free alternatives or other activities have been noted, whilst the growth in micropubs also been suggested as a contributor.
However, the longer term shift in the nation's consumption from on to off-trade purchasing over a number of decades has no doubt been a key driver. Beer drinking has also changed dramatically; in 2015 off-trade beer sales overtook pub and on-trade sales, declining from an 88% stronghold in 1980. Policy measures have also likely played important roles with regular lobbying battles fought over alcohol duty rates and business rates.
Another long-running issue has also been the reportedly poor treatment of 'tied pubs' - pubs owned by large pub companies who dictate rents and beer prices. Voluntary resolution efforts reportedly failed and were subsequently followed by the Pubs Code legislation in 2016 requiring tied pubs should be no worse of than those independently owned. Recent indications are that issues remain.
Some industry groups have already begun public campaigns calling for duty cuts ahead of the March budget. Such campaigns often claim that duty cuts help businesses such as pubs. Others argue that beer duty cuts or freezes actually harm pubs because it widens the gap between supermarket and pub prices. During the duty escalator period of 2008-2013 (for beer) the gap between pub and supermarket beer prices appeared to have been halted, as put forward in an IAS affordability briefing [pdf] and seemingly supported by evidence on tax changes.
Meanwhile, pubs are likely to remain an area of interest for the alcohol field, particularly in the context of policy changes such as minimum pricing in Scotland, duty policy as Brexit unravels, and future consumer trends for eating and drinking.
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