A new report explores the impact of cuts to alcohol duties made in recent years, estimating it may have led to as many as 2,000 deaths in England.
Download Modelling the impact of alcohol duty policies since 2012 in England and Scotland [pdf] or see SARG and IAS summary here.
Conducted by the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG) on behalf of the Institute of Alcohol Studies (IAS), the report estimates the scrapping the alcohol duty escalator has resulted in £341 million in additional costs to the NHS, and other costs such as half a million additional lost days of work at a cost to the economy of £62 million.
The alcohol duty escalator, which was in effect between 2008-2012, was intended to ensure taxes on alcohol rose by 2% above inflation each year until 2015. However, in 2013 then chancellor George Osborne decided to abandon it and subsequent budgets have seen alcohol duties either cut or frozen in every year except in 2017. These cuts mean that beer duty is 19% lower than in 2012, cider and spirits duty 11% lower, and wine duty 2% lower, accounting for inflation.
In a blog for The Conversation, one of the report's authors, Colin Angus, says alcohol in off-trade shops is now more affordable than it has been at any point in the last 30 years, arguing that the Chancellor should consider the health implications of such decisions ahead of the forthcoming budget. Angus concludes 'raising duty in line with inflation would prevent further increases in alcohol-related harm, but increasing alcohol taxes above inflation has the potential to undo some of the harms caused by recent duty policy.' As reported in The Independent, a change in tack could result in over 4,700 lives saved over the next decade.
Aveek Bhattacharya, senior policy analyst at IAS, said:
'Over the past six years, government policy has deliberately made alcohol cheaper by cutting duty. Cheaper alcohol inevitably means higher levels of drinking, higher levels of crime and social disorder, higher costs to the economy and public purse, and ultimately, more deaths. Recent duty cuts are also costing HM Treasury £1.2 billion that could be put to supporting stretched public services.'
Colin Angus, SARG Senior Research Fellow, said:
'We found that the cuts to alcohol duties since 2012 led to a one per cent rise in alcohol consumption in England. This led to almost 2,000 additional alcohol-related deaths between 2012 and 2019, compared to if the alcohol escalator had remained in place until 2015 as originally planned.
Due to the complex relationship between alcohol and health, the effects of government duty policy since 2012 will continue to be seen for many years into the future, estimated to be as high as 9000 additional deaths by 2032."
Critics might point out these effects are only modelled, although the SARG team's conservative modelling of MUP may be seen to have preliminary support from early sales data in Scotland. Whilst pricing debates have tended to focus on MUP, particularly with England's reluctance to accept the evidential case made by public health groups, tax has also long been seen as an important alcohol policy lever. Last month a new report set out detailed proposals on how alcohol duty could be reformed after Brexit to deliver a 'fit-for purpose' duty system.
Meanwhile, hopes for a decision by the Chancellor to take into account such public health evidence ahead of the 2019 budget may be limited. Recent cuts to alcohol duty are likely to be seen as linked to a Government frequently charged with putting business interests over the health of the nation and effective campaigns by various industry groups calling for such cuts.
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