The first official data on alcohol sales has been released since the introduction of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland on 1st May 2018, indicating a fall in consumption to 'the lowest level seen' in Scotland since 1994 when data collection began.
The news was welcomed by supporters of the policy as an early indication that MUP may be starting to have the desired effect of reducing consumption by removing the cheapest alcoholic drinks from the off-trade market.
A Twitter summary thread and graphs by Colin Angus described the results as 'encouraging signs' for the policy. Whilst consumption fell in Scotland from 10.2 litres (L) per adult in 2017 to 9.9 L in 2018, consumption rose in the same period in England and Wales (from 8.9L to 9.1L) where MUP has yet to be introduced.
Closing the gap as England and Wales consumption rising?
The consumption gap between Scotland and England and Wales fell from 14% in 2017 to 9% in 2018, although the 2018 figures also include four months of data before MUP came into effect and are adjusted to account for the exclusion of Aldi and Lidl sales. However, the data is generally considered a robust measure of consumption and indicates the problems with reading into the retail volume sales data released earlier this year and leading to news reports and opponents suggesting the policy was failing to work.
The MESAS data however shows a decline in consumption specifically due to a drop in off-trade sales, against a rise in England and Wales. On-trade sales continued to decline across the UK. As such, MUP appears to have stunted off-trade sales in Scotland despite the football world cup and hot summer of 2018. Meanwhile, health groups will be concerned that overall consumption in England may be back on the up, likely driven by middle and older aged adults.
Also as expected, sales of alcohol below 50 pence per unit dropped dramatically, whilst sales at just above 50 pence per unit jumped (see interactive graph here). Indeed, whilst sales of key drinks like cheap ciders and vodka have been reported to have reduced significantly, some drinks typically sold above the MUP - including Buckfast - have reportedly seen boosts in sales. This may be broadly seen as consistent with the overall predicted effect that small changes in consumption amongst heavier drinkers can equate to population level reduction in drinking.
Where next?
Scotland's MUP evaluation timetable sets out the five-year plan, as indeed all serious commentators will recognise these are early days in assessing the policy's true impact. Nonetheless, MUP debates will continue, and indeed many will be closely observing how the various stakeholders react to emerging evidence.
A future focus for discussion on MUP may also turn to the price at which its set. If evidence continues to indicate its effectiveness, this may be seen as reason to increase the MUP level in order to deliver greater public health gains, and offset the blunting effect of inflation since Scotland's MUP bill was first passed in 2012. The policy was eventually implemented some five years later after a legal challenge led by sections of the alcohol industry, which some public health figures described as 'delaying tactics'.
Meanwhile, Ireland continues to push ahead for MUP, and Wales is expected to introduce a 50 pence MUP next year. However, politicians have been notably reluctant to make any form of commitment to its potential adoption in England following the infamous 2013 u-turn and the public historically appearing largely split on the policy. Should evidence continue to emerge about MUP delivering reductions in drinking, and crucially subsequent effects on alcohol harms, pressure will no doubt mount on England to follow suit sooner rather than later.
See the full MESAS 2019 monitoring report here, Twitter summary thread and graphs by MESAS and Colin Angus, and media reports including the BBC, Guardian, Independent and Herald.
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