EDIT: Consumption data has since been released - see report and analysis here.
The 1st of May 2019 marked one year since the introduction of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland, prompting mainstream media coverage and inevitable attempts to declare its impact, despite limited data as yet available.
Media speculation had also followed recent Nielsen data indicating volume sales of alcohol had increased in the first 46 weeks after MUP came into effect. Various stories claimed 'Scots are drinking more despite minimum pricing', even though the data provides no indication of how actual alcohol consumption in units (or pure litres) has changed. As others sought to clarify, the Nielsen figures only reflects 'natural' volume sales; the volume of alcoholic drinks regardless of its strength.
A comprehensive blog by the Institute of Alcohol Studies (IAS) highlights a range of other important issues, which in addition to being in the very early stages of the policy, highlights factors such as 2018 summer heatwave and the football World Cup, making a single year-on-year comparison particularly problematic. Similar issues arose six months after MUP had been in place, with reports of volume sales having risen, but significantly less than seen in England as highlighted in the MUP evaluation six month report.
The IAS blog also identifies a range of other data sources all with various limitations, and accepts that it is feasible 'that total unit sales in Scotland may have risen after the introduction of MUP', though a significant slowdown in more recent months may have also occurred. Again though, other factors are as yet unaccounted, such as a potential rise in adult drinkers of over 0.5% in some years as a result of population growth. Other limited sales indicators show that where rises are indicated by the data, these appear considerably lower than those seen in England.
In conclusion, the IAS blog suggests it is likely MUP has 'restrained alcohol consumption over a period when it would otherwise have risen and may yet bring about reductions in consumption', in turn reducing harms and saving lives.
Hierarchies of evidence?
Media reports also looked to various anecdotal accounts, including some rather logical observations about the impacts on certain products. Reports that MUP has 'delivered a hammer blow to white cider' are certainly logical given the significant price jumps such drinks have incurred, whilst other expected losers reportedly include cheap own brand products, particularly spirits. Meanwhile, drinks just above the 50 pence MUP - including Buckfast - have reportedly seen boosts in sales also as expected.
Nielsen had previously reported survey data which suggested almost three-fourths of Scots (71%) believed pre-MUP that they would not change their drinking habits, but around one-in-six thought they would reduce their consumption. Indeed, media reports regularly feature interviews with public drinkers when covering MUP, with the BBC's feature based on views from a shopkeeper, a group of students and a self-identified alcoholic.
Arguably such anecdotes do offer one form of evidence into the possible impacts, though such accounts may be seen to overlook the key imapct of MUP as based on accruing modest changes across larger numbers of heavier drinkers, rather than dramatic changes in individual cases. Nonetheless, the impact on a smaller population of heavily dependent drinkers has been seen as an important area to assess and is included within the official evaluation plans.
Next steps?
Another issue for many observers is likely to relate to how MUP may be perceived as a policy measure over time. Prior to implementation the public have appeared largely split on the policy, with greater understanding seemingly related to greater support, but with significant variation across population groups. With England's current MUP policy position seemingly defaulted to waiting to see what happens in Scotland following a somewhat tumultuous history, the silence over a reported new national strategy and further MUP review this year may be telling.
Meanwhile Scotland's MUP evaluation timetable sets out the five year plan indicating that whilst the next MESAS monitoring report will be released next month, the first analysis of 12 months post MUP sales data is not expected until late 2019. In the interim, media speculation may continue with the release of any further volume sales data. Others will continue to caution against premature conclusions. In policy terms though, many will note that robust evidence plays a varied and often limited role in public opinion and policy making, with MUP just one of many issues where current alcohol policy in England may be seen to fall short of the evidence base.
Comments