Pubs look set to continue to be a source of interest within alcohol policy debates in 2019, in part owing to their perceived role amongst some as part of a healthier drinking culture and shift away from cheap off-trade sales.
Pubs have however been in decline since the 1980s, with current estimates suggesting 18 pubs are closing every week, and 1 in 4 having closed since 2008 according to ONS pub statistics released last year.
A look behind the headline figures reveals a more nuanced story, as indeed the ONS stats show and as described in a review of pubs in 2018 by pub journalist Phil Mellows. Notably, despite significant drops in pub numbers, pub employment has been stable owing to diversification and more jobs in larger pubs more focused on food other drinks.
Pubs though continue to face a range of longer term challenges, as also explored in a somewhat inauspicious blog by Company Debt, identifying the decline in youth drinking, property prices and other financial pressures, including pubs having to pay 20p per pint on business rates versus just 2p paid by supermarkets.
Temporary respite for pubs in 2018 came in the form of a summer heatwave and rather successful England World Cup campaign, though doubtful Brexit prospects continue to loom. That is unless you take the view of Brexit advocate and mega pub chain JD Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin, who has used the pubs to promote his rather dubious no deal Brexit claims.
The continued popularity of Dry January has also raised further questions about the fate of pubs, as explored in a BBC report. Some suggest Dry January harms pubs when they should be nurtured as positive drinking environments which foster healthy social connections, whilst others say pubs have a long way to go to improve low and no alcohol offerings, or that the on vs off trade playing field needs levelling via firmer policy measures.
Regular readers will also know pubs often feature in debates about alcohol policy, particularly in terms of pricing measures as explored in our pre 2018 budget post on whether duty cuts can save pubs. Whilst sections of the alcohol industry have repeatedly called for duty cuts to help pubs and jobs, many dispute the validity of such claims, including a number of pub operators having challenged the BBPA's claims that duty cuts had led to significant job growth and investment in 2016.
Others argue that beer duty cuts or freezes actually harm pubs because it widens the gap between supermarket and pub prices. During the duty escalator period of 2008-2013 (for beer) the gap between pub and supermarket beer prices appeared to have been halted, as put forward in an IAS affordability briefing [pdf] and seemingly supported by evidence on tax changes.
Pubs of the future: not as we know them?
For the near future at least, it appears pubs will continue to face a range of pressures, particularly economic, and so the pub landscape will continue to shift. Some areas do appear to be 'bucking the trend', as reported in the Scottish Highlands where there has been a 14% rise in pubs over the last ten years attributed to the rise in tourism in the area.
The reality of less drinking amongst younger people, continued financial pressures on both consumers and operators, and potentially a continuing range of other competing activities means remaining old school pubs look increasingly endangered. As well as wider range of less traditional offerings by larger pubs, growth areas are likely to be micro brewary based tap rooms, emerging from the trend for craft ales.
Still, some will be looking for alcohol policy measures to help the on trade as a whole, and particular attention will be on Scotland to see what impact minimum pricing may have on the fate of the pub.
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