NHS Scotland have published a briefing paper addressing what can be deduced about the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) since its introduction in May 2018.
The short summary follows a number of recent media reports speculating on the impact of MUP in Scotland, though lead researchers have stated it is "too early to draw conclusions" after just six months. The briefing echoes this point and highlights complete findings will be reported in 2023, but NHS Scotland will continue to present trends in per-adult alcohol consumption in Scotland and England & Wales in annual monitoring reports as part of its evaluation framework. Details on a specific evaluation component of the impact of MUP on harmful drinkers has also been released this month.
Whilst detailing the methods to be used as part of the evaluation, particularly retail sales data as the most reliable and primary outcome measure, the briefing does highlight Nielsen data on changes in the 3-month period following MUP implementation compared to the same period last year. The data suggests total volume purchases increased by 4% in Scotland, although in England & Wales where MUP is not in place, there was an increase of 8% in value purchases over the same time period. However total value purchases increased more in Scotland (14%) compared to England (8%), although in Scotland average prices had risen whilst in England they had fallen.
Another data source with large coverage of convenience stores in Scotland found overall sales had risen by nearly 15%, although sales of Frosty Jacks which previously retailed below the 50 pence MUP had fallen by 70% (no comparison with England was available). Also highlighted in the briefing is data which led to news reports highlighting an increase in sales of Buckfast since MUP, reportedly of 17%, following a survey commissioned by Frosty Jacks producers Aston Manor. However the briefing highlights that their analysis found Buckfast value sales had increased prior to MUP implementation, whilst value sales increased by 13% between May and October in 2017 across Great Britain. Buckfast does not typically retail below 50 pence MUP and was only 2.8% of off-trade sales volume in Scotland in 2017.
The briefing further sets out the scope of the evaluation and highlights the need to consider the wide range of factors at play, including the 'unusually hot summer' and events such as the men's World Cup during the current post-MUP period. It also emphasises the focus on volume and drink category sales as the main measures which can better account for changes in variables such as products and populations, whilst measuring value sales/purchases do not offer a good measure of the impact of MUP on consumption as are influenced by increases in average price.
No doubt any emerging reports or data potentially indicating the effects of MUP will continue to attract media attention over the coming years. To what extent real impacts will also reflect those as modelled by Sheffield Alcohol Research Group will also attract attention and most likely criticism from MUP opponents. Scotland's SNP overcame a five year legal challenge by sections of the alcohol industry, insisting that while MUP is not a 'silver bullet', it is a key part of its national efforts to address alcohol harms.
Meanwhile both Wales and Ireland have been taking steps to implement MUP, whilst calls continue for England to follow suit. Those hopeful for a change of tack in the forthcoming national strategy are likely to be disappointed according to a recent parliamentary answer stating "the new strategy will not include a commitment to introduce minimum unit pricing in England at this time", but that PHE would review the impact in Scotland.
See here for Scotland's MUP evaluation framework and its recent national alcohol strategy.
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