Wales MUP Vs taxation report as Scotland's MUP approaches

The Sheffield Alcohol Research Group have published its final report comparing the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing to taxation policies in Wales.

Download 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Wales: Final report' [pdf]

Wales has been seeking a 50 pence MUP and can now expect to progress with implementation after the legal go ahead for MUP in Scotland last year following a long running legal challenge from sections of the alcohol industry. Notably the legal challenge largely revolved around how proportionate MUP was in relation to other possible options including taxation changes.

Analysis of the comparative impact of MUP versus taxation measures has therefore been of increasing focus in the debate, though proponents have long argued that both do different things and therefore both should be utilised simultaneously.

In essence, taxation may be effective in generating revenue from alcohol sales which could be spent on efforts to redress the harmful effects of consumption. However the modelling indicates taxation cannot feasibly achieve the same preventative effects expected by MUP on those that experience the greatest harm without having a significant impact on those drinking within the guidelines. Whilst MUP can create a genuine floor price in effect reducing consumption amongst those who purchase the cheapest alcohol units, taxation is subject to a wide range of limitations including a complex and often criticised alcohol tax system and the ability of retailers to absorb tax rises or 'loss lead'.

The report's executive summary highlights that the modelled effects of an MUP 'set at between 35 and 70p would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption among hazardous and, particularly, harmful drinkers', and that 'moderate drinkers would experience only small impacts on their alcohol consumption' of around https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/967000991064305665£3 per year on average. The summary also highlights:

• Large alcohol tax increases would be required to achieve the same effects as a 50p minimum unit price. Specifically:

a. 33% tax increase would achieve the same reduction in alcohol consumption among hazardous and harmful drinkers;

b. 48% tax increase would achieve the same reduction in alcohol consumption among harmful drinkers;

c. 34% tax increase would achieve the same reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths among hazardous and harmful drinkers;

d. 47% tax increase would achieve the same reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths among harmful drinkers.

Colin Angus has again composed a useful Twitter thread highlighting the key findings with accompanying graphs. Meanwhile outcomes from Wale's and Scotland's now closed consultations are expected shortly whilst Scotland's May implementation date fast approaches. Meanwhile England has yet to set out its stall after an evidence review session held by the Health and Home Affairs Committees. Watch this space.

Almost a quarter of Welsh adults drink over the current CMO's guidelines. They consume three quarters of all of the alcohol.

The heaviest drinking 3% of adults drink over a quarter of all the alcohol drunk in Wales. pic.twitter.com/L1Q73NLkXl

— Colin Angus (@VictimOfMaths) February 23, 2018