The latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) indicate a fall in the number of violent offences where the victim believed the perpetrator to be under the influence of alcohol. For the year ending March 2017, 40% of victims believed the perpetrator(s) to be under the influence of alcohol versus 53% in 2013/14.
According to the statistical bulletin, alcohol-related violent crime accounted for 464,000 of the total 1.2 million (1,167,998) violence against the person offences recorded by the police. This was the first time violent offences reached over 1 million, an 18% increase on the year ending March 2016 (992,246 offences). However the bulletin highlights that 'while these figures are useful in giving an insight into the caseload of the police, they are not believed to provide a reliable measure of the prevalence of violent crime.'
Whilst the figures do suggest that despite a 'fairly flat trend' in overall violence since 2014 following a significant period of decline, the proportion which is alcohol-related appears to have dropped in recent years. However analysis and tables exploring alcohol-related violent crime is far more limited in the latest release compared with 2014. A section on new and upcoming changes to the bulletin identifies the role of 'public sector financial constraints on the future level of funding for the survey'.
Speculating on what lies behind the figures is tricky business, not least when considering the 'complex picture' behind the overall trend in violent crime. The bulletin details extensive changes in recording of crime and the definitions used and identifies that whilst year on year changes have not been statistically significant since 2014, the cumulative effect has been a statistically significant decrease of 29% since 2013.
As such interpreting the figures in relation to recent years is limited in scope, though table 7 in the appendix [xls] gives breakdowns for alcohol-related crime. A crude comparison with a graph made available for the 2014 release indicates falls in the proportion of alcohol-related violent crime for those aged 16-24 of around 10%. This could point to a possible decline in the proportion of alcohol-related violent crime as associated with the decline in alcohol consumption since 2004 driven by younger people. Other speculative associations could be made in relation to the continued shift to home drinking or perhaps even the range of initiatives to reduce alcohol-related problems seen across many town centres and localities.
Other data sources?
Other than the proportion of victims who believed perpetrators to be under the influence, a Home Office Data Hub exists to support the identification of crime as alcohol-related by the police. However it is not mandatory for police forces to flag offences they believe to be “alcohol-related”, which may explain why the Government's commitment to publish information about where alcohol-related crime and disorder is occurring on www.police.uk as pledged in the 2016 Modern Crime Prevention Strategy has yet to materialise. Available data identifies “assault with injury” (22% of which were flagged as alcohol-related) and “assault without injury” (16%) were the most common alcohol-related violent offences and respectively accounted for 37% and 35% of all police recorded violence.
Cardiff University's Violence and Society Research Group though has continued to analyse violence-related injuries presenting to A&E departments and other clinics, identifying a decline in overall violence related injuries. Whilst not identifying the proportion of injuries which may be alcohol-related, again the data suggest any decline is most prominent amongst younger adults, with a fall of 15% among 18-30 year olds compared to 10% among 31-50 year olds and 5% among those aged 51 years and over.
What is really happening with both alcohol-related violence, and indeed violent crime more widely, is undoubtedly a complex question which will require specialist investigation. Nonetheless, some may feel a fall in alcohol-related violent crime follows as a logical consequence of the decline in consumption amongst younger drinkers. What trends are in store for the future, and indeed any related policy decisions, remains to be seen.
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