The Welsh Government has been hearing evidence on Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) from a broad range of stakeholders as the deadline to submit evidence to the Welsh MUP consultation closes on 15th December 2017.
Wales' MUP move follows the recent legal go ahead for MUP in Scotland after a protracted five year legal battle spearheaded by sections of the alcohol industry. Scotland's current open online consultation runs until January next year though the Scottish Government will most likely be focused on key implementation questions before the law comes into force.
An updated interim Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model report on the estimated impact of MUP in Wales has also been released, identifying alcohol as a cause of 2.9% of all deaths in adults in Wales. The report says 24% of drinkers in Wales drink at potentially hazardous levels (14-50 units/week for men and 14-35 for women), and over 4% at harmful levels (over 50 units/week for men and 35 for women). The average harmful drinker, whom MUP is predicted to have the greatest impact on, consumes 3,924 units a year and spends almost £2,900 per year on alcohol.
The report says the impact of a 50 pence MUP on moderate drinkers would be minimal, with an estimated reduction in annual consumption of 2.4 units, equivalent to around one pint of beer or one large glass of wine and an increase in spending of £3 per drinker. In contrast, harmful drinkers would have an estimated annual reduction of 269 units, equivalent to 110 pints or 30 bottles of wine, and an increase in spending of £48 per drinker, though 'leading to substantially greater reductions in consumption in more deprived groups'.
The estimated reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths is greater than the reduction in consumption (8.5% compared to 3.6%) due to the fact that the policy effectively targets those groups at the greatest risk of harm. For every 100,000 harmful drinkers, a 50p MUP is estimated to avoid 56 deaths and 688 hospital admissions each year. However a clear socioeconomic gradient is expected with 12.3 fewer deaths each year per 100,000 drinkers in the most deprived group, compared to 0.1 in the least deprived.
The next stage of the analysis will be to provide a report presenting the full range of MUP policies including crime and workplace outcomes, expected early next year. The National Assembly’s outreach team has also held a series of focus groups across Wales as reported here [pdf].
Implemention questions?
Scotland's most likely route to seeing MUP take effect will be to include a new mandatory condition for all alcohol licensed premises. However Wales is subject to the same licensing statute as England, and therefore presents one practical challenge. Opponents of course have argued that cross-border issues will arise once Scotland's MUP is in force, though public health groups have since said it is 'high time the Westminster government followed suit' and 'placed people before profits'. Westminster's position is likely to remain one of deliberate ambivalence for sometime, continuing its stated position of waiting to see what happens over the borders before taking any decisive action following the infamous 2013 u-turn.
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