Its no secret that the number of pubs has been declining for decades, long before the introduction of the smoking ban ten years ago. The changing picture of the nation's pubs though, like many alcohol policy areas, is both often politicised and complex.
Whilst pubs have been closing steadily since the 1980s, the total number of licensed premises has in fact been rising in recent years across both the on and off-trade. The profile of on-trade premises has diversified through the growth in restaurants and other non-pub and mixed service premises such as hotels. Meanwhile the pull of an ever widening price gap between on and off sales has been central to rising home drinking habits such as increasing wine consumption, particularity amongst women. Beer drinking though too has changed dramatically; in 2015 off-trade beer sales overtook pub and on-trade sales, declining from an 88% stronghold in 1980.
Ashtrays and darts
Many surviving pubs have undoubtedly done so through diversification, notably through food and non-alcoholic drinks such as coffee. The growth in non-drinkers or those seeking lower alcohol drinks has also spurred some drinks sector innovation, with others seeking to encourage pubs to better cater for those watching their units. Whilst impossible to identify the exact impact of the smoking ban on pubs, smoke-filled 'wet-led' pubs may now seem a relic of a bygone era, whilst the 'gastro-pub' or craft-beer venue has since become more commonplace. Outliers may include a small but rising number of pubs saved by local communities turning around otherwise doomed public houses with support available for others wanting to save their local.
The ten year anniversary of the smoking ban though inevitably prompted a number of headlines tenuously resting the demise of pub numbers solely at its door, ignoring many of the other probable factors such as pub diversification, changes in licensing legislation and declining drinking rates amongst young people.
The pub sector itself has also been fighting its own battles, mainly in relation to cost pressures. The Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers (ALMR) recently blamed a wave of pub closures on 'spiralling business rates', though the last budget announced pubs with a rateable value under £100,000 would receive £1,000 discount on their rates, affecting 90% of pubs. Another long running issue has also been the reportedly poor treatment of 'tied pubs' - pubs owned by large pub companies who dictate rents and beer prices. Voluntary resolution efforts reportedly failed and were subsequently followed by the Pubs Code legislation in 2016 requiring tied pubs should be no worse of than those independently owned.
Back to pricing ?
Pubs represent an interesting area in alcohol policy terms, in part because many health advocates wish to see consumption shift back towards the on-trade where drinking is supervised and rarely sold at less than 50 pence per unit. How much of the purported wellbeing benefits from community pubs may actually hold true will be seen as less of an issue than the proportion of cheap units consumed by harmful drinkers obtained through the off-trade.
As such, alcohol health groups see pricing policy as crucial in order to reduce overall harms, even if not to specifically boost pubs, but curb the supply of cheap off-trade units that has likely fuelled their demise. Whilst minimum pricing would narrow the on-off trade price gap, increases in duty rates are also seen as likely to help pubs, despite claims to the contrary by sections of the industry.
This week a new pubs minister, Jake Berry, was announced. Based on previous undertakings, few will expect the ministerial brief to transform the fate of the pub industry, even if the rate of decline has been slowing in more recent years. The imminent final ruling on Scotland's MUP bid though could prove far more significant to the future of the local boozer.
Source: MESAS monitoring report 2017
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