Cardiff University's Violence and Society Research Group last month published Violence in England and Wales in 2013: An Accident and Emergency Perspective which showed that numbers of people injured in serious violence dropped by 12% in 2013 compared to 2012.
The data, gathered from 117 EDs, MIUs and Walk-in Centres, show another significant year on year fall in serious violence across England and Wales. Apart from a 7% increase in 2008, levels of serious violence have fallen every year since 2001. Lead author of the study, Professor Jonathan Shepherd said:
"Violence is falling in many Western countries and we don’t know all the reasons why. In England and Wales, the growth of multi-agency violence prevention involving police, the NHS and local authorities may well be a factor; violence has fallen more in regions where this is best organised.
Another probable explanation is changes in alcohol habits. Binge drinking has become less frequent, and the proportion of youth who don’t drink alcohol at all has risen sharply. Also, after decades in which alcohol has become more affordable, since 2008 it has become less affordable. For people most prone to involvement in violence, those aged 18-30, falls in disposable income are probably an important factor."
Reports in the mainstream media were quick to emphasize the link between the affordability of alcohol and violence - e.g. "Violence drops 12% as alcohol prices rise" from the Daily Mail, and "A decline in binge drinking and the rising price of alcohol is behind a dramatic 12% fall in the number of people injured in serious violence" from the Guardian.
On the other hand, Portman Group Chief Executive Henry Ashworth highlighted the impact of local partnership-working and pointed towards cultural change in our drinking habits, saying:
"It seems that we as a society no longer accept drunk and disorderly behaviour. It is important that we continue to engage partnership working to ensure these positive trends continue in the right direction."
So, as Dr Shepherd highlights, the exact role of alcohol trends and activities is hard to establish. A FullFact analysis of the claims suggests a correlation, but is also cautious against clear links. However it may be worth noting the evaluation of the 3 year £22 million the Alcohol Improvement Programme (AIP) that ran from 2008-2011. It indicated the AIP was not found to have impacted on national level hospital admissions, though it did help improve the prioritisation and delivery of local action, particularly around identified 'High Impact Changes' such as IBA and hospital liaison. Alcohol now seems a priority for many local authorities, so it would be understandable to expect some significant impact. However it is also speculated that consumption may start to increase again if affordability begins to rise again.
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